Critical and Non-Critical Minerals: Antimony

According to the Department of Energy, there are 50 minerals designated as “critical”. They also have a separate list for “materials” that are deemed critical. In the near term, some minerals are considered critical, near critical, or not critical. But in the medium term and long term, these designations shift since supply concerns for a particular mineral may not be serious in the 5 years, but beyond that, greater supply risk puts that mineral on the critical list. Whether a mineral is critical depends on whether the outlook for reliable supply of that mineral appears to be in potential crisis. A

How does a mineral become “critical”? The Energy Act of 2020 defines a “critical material” (which includes minerals) as “any non-fuel mineral, element, substance, or material that the Secretary of Energy determines: (i) has a high risk of supply chain disruption; and (ii) serves an essential function in one or more energy technologies, including energy technologies that produce, transmit, store, and conserve energy…..” and pertaining to minerals specifically, “any mineral, element, substance, or material designated as critical by the Secretary of the Interior, acting through the director of the U.S. Geological Survey.”

Over the next few weeks, we will be examining five minerals over the last few years: three which are designated critical (antimony, coltan, and zinc); two which are not (copper, cobalt). We examine what has happened in supply, demand, and price behavior, as well as the outlook for this set of minerals. This week, our focus is on antimony, a mineral (in our case, mined in Easter Europe) that Pallas Trading is actively commercializing.

Antimony

Early this year, China imposed export prohibitions on strategic minerals (including antimony) to the US, causing prices to surge to record highs (33,630 USD/MT in China, 24,300 USD/MT in the Netherlands). The bans are widely viewed as a response to escalating trade tensions and as a tool for China to safeguard national security interests while signaling its ability to disrupt critical supply chains. The move also consolidates China’s internal control over mineral production and processing.

Refined Antimony
Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimony

These restrictions led to significant supply chain disruptions and forced buyers to seek alternative sources which increased price volatility. Further, rising demand from renewable energy storage, EV production, and traditional industries (batteries, glass, plastics) has also contributed to upward price pressures. This issue really goes back to China’s role in the global economy since the 1990s and the resulting export of US manufacturing resulting in a circumstance that, from the US’ perspective, is intolerable. By 2016, the United States began imposing tariffs as a leverage tactic. Following years of reciprocal action, and the return of President Donald Trump with even more aggressive tariffs, the exports bans out of China were the result. And this bilateral dynamic continues. Today, in response to export restrictions, the US announced a pause on some sales to China of critical US technologies, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors, and certain chemicals. And as of today, the US declared China has not honored its commitment to undo export restrictions.

World map of the main antimony deposits, mines, and important occurrences worldwide. The symbols indicate either a single mine/deposit or a number of deposits.
Reference: MDPI.com

The US and its allies have begun seeking alternative sources—such as Bolivia, Australia, Russia, and Tajikistan—but these countries lack China’s scale, and ramping up new production will take years. China controls nearly half of global antimony production and about 80% of processing capacity. The new export licensing regime and outright bans, especially targeting the US, have exposed vulnerabilities in Western supply chains, particularly for industries reliant on antimony for flame retardants, batteries, and microelectronics. This includes the US military. Pallas Trading is focused on supply chain solutions for a current available supply of antimony in the United States.

Conclusion

Over the past three years, the price of antimony has been shaped by a combination of evolving industrial demand, supply constraints, and—critically—geopolitical events. Export controls, trade wars, regional conflicts, and protectionist policies have all contributed to heightened price volatility and logistical challenges, underscoring the increasingly interconnected and risk-prone nature of global commodity markets. Since the condition of the antimony market is directly affected by current dynamic negotiations between the US and China, our view is that the result of the negotiations in the coming months will reverse this constraint, either through likely China concessions, or by securing long term supply at these higher prices. At Pallas Trading, we navigate these constraints in order to ensure stable long term finance and supply solutions for our customers.